Certainty is an illusion.
Intuere helps you understand what prediction markets are actually implying — by interpreting probabilities, not pretending to predict the future.
Early access includes explanations and analysis shared by email.
The problem
Journalists quote experts who speak in soft language: “likely”, “probably”, “could potentially”.
Prediction markets aggregate thousands of informed opinions into precise probabilities.
But what does 41% actually mean? Is that high or low? How confident should you be? What changed from yesterday's 38%?
What Intuere does
Intuere analyzes live prediction market data and provides clear, contextual interpretations of what the probabilities imply.
We explain what a given probability means, how it has shifted over time, and what degree of confidence the market consensus reflects.
Intuere does not predict outcomes. It interprets what prediction market prices are actually saying.
Case Study
Illustrative • Snapshot in timeAn example of how Intuere explains a prediction market probability.
Will the Federal Reserve change interest rates at its March meeting?
As of Feb 9, 2026
- No change85%
- 25 bps decrease15%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25+ bps increase<1%
What the probability means
An 85% probability of no change means the market sees holding rates steady as the clear base case for March. In practical terms: traders believe the Fed is very likely to wait, even if cuts are expected later in the year. This does not mean rate cuts are off the table — it means March is widely viewed as too early. The remaining 15% is concentrated almost entirely on a single 25 bps cut, suggesting that while a cut is possible, the market sees little chance of a more aggressive move.
What changed recently
Over the past several weeks, the probability of no change rose sharply, while the probability of a 25 bps cut declined. Moves of this size typically reflect a meaningful repricing, not short-term noise. In this case, the shift suggests traders updated their expectations in response to stronger economic data and reduced urgency for immediate easing. Probabilities for larger cuts and rate increases remain near zero, indicating strong consensus around the plausible range of outcomes.
What the market is implicitly assuming
At current levels, the market appears to be assuming that:
- Inflation progress continues, but not fast enough to force an early cut
- Economic conditions remain resilient through March
- The Fed prefers additional confirmation before changing policy
If any of these assumptions change materially, the probabilities could move quickly.
- • This does not mean rate cuts are unlikely in 2026
- • This does not mean the Fed has ruled out easing
- • This does not mean new data cannot still shift expectations
An 85% probability reflects confidence about timing, not certainty about direction.
At current levels, this market suggests that planning around a March rate cut is risky.
A reasonable takeaway is not “no cut at all,” but rather: expect policy to remain unchanged in March unless new data materially shifts expectations.
For decision-makers, this means March should be treated as a checkpoint for confirmation — not a turning point.
Case study shown for illustration. Probabilities reflect market pricing at a specific point in time.
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What you get
Live market data
Real-time probabilities from Polymarket and other prediction markets, updated every 15 minutes.
Plain English explanations
Statistical context translated into clear language you can use in articles, reports, or investment decisions.
Historical context
See how probabilities have changed over time and understand what drove major shifts in market sentiment.
Why not just use ChatGPT?
ChatGPT doesn't have access to live prediction market data, and its training cutoff means it can't explain what today's probabilities mean in the context of recent changes.
More importantly, explaining probabilities well requires consistent, calibrated judgment. Generic LLMs will give you different explanations for the same probability depending on phrasing, and they lack the domain-specific context that makes explanations useful.
Intuere is purpose-built for interpreting prediction markets: it tracks market sources, monitors historical price movements, understands probability calibration, and generates consistent, grounded explanations of what market expectations actually mean.
Who this is for
Built for people who care about accuracy
Journalists
Add precision and context to your reporting. Reference market probabilities with confidence, knowing you understand what the numbers actually mean.
Investors
Stop second-guessing what market odds imply. Get clear explanations that help you make better-informed decisions without the mental overhead.
Analysts
Incorporate prediction market intelligence into your research and presentations. Communicate probability in terms your stakeholders will understand.
Get early access
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No spam. No venture-backed growth tactics.
Just a useful tool for people who think in probabilities.